In the world of Australian politics, a fascinating battle is unfolding in the Farrer by-election, where the support for Donald Trump's policies has become a pivotal issue. The by-election, set for May 9, has transformed into a tight race between Climate 200-backed independent Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation's David Farley. What makes this particularly intriguing is the role of advocacy group GetUp, which has embarked on an ambitious campaign to link Pauline Hanson, the leader of One Nation, to the rising costs of fuel and fertiliser, consequences of Trump's war in Iran.
GetUp's strategy is a bold one, with a budget of at least $600,000, a significant increase from their 2025 election budget. This surge in funding has been driven by a growing membership base, with over 100,000 new members joining last month alone. The group's interim CEO, Paul Ferris, believes that Hanson's alignment with Trump's policies is a key factor in the rising costs faced by regional voters, particularly farmers and families.
One thing that immediately stands out is the potential impact of this campaign on soft One Nation voters. GetUp's research suggests that when these voters are presented with the party's actual record, including votes to cut benefits and reduce taxes for corporations, Hanson's support drops significantly. This strategy aims to expose the contradictions between One Nation's rhetoric and its actions, a tactic that could sway undecided voters.
The broader context of One Nation's momentum is also worth examining. Despite a slight dip in the latest Resolve Political Monitor poll, the party's primary vote remains well above its last election result. However, both major parties, Labor and the Coalition, have increased their attacks on One Nation, especially after its impressive showing in the South Australian election, where it secured a significant share of the vote and four lower house seats.
Milthorpe, a teacher and a strong contender in the by-election, has warned of the potential financial disadvantage she faces against One Nation's advertising campaign. GetUp's campaign includes a range of media strategies, from billboards and television ads to video-on-demand placements and targeted radio advertising. The group's efforts have even spread to metropolitan areas, with additional billboards and bus stop placements, and they've distributed over 40,000 anti-One Nation stickers nationwide.
In response, One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce has attributed the party's slide in polls to "bad press" surrounding the employment of a convicted rapist. He dismisses GetUp's campaign, suggesting that voters see it as a source of "bile." However, the campaign's focus on Trump's unpopularity and the economic consequences of his policies could be a powerful tool to sway public opinion.
This by-election and the GetUp campaign highlight the complex dynamics of Australian politics. It raises questions about the impact of advocacy groups, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the potential for policy decisions made abroad to influence domestic politics. As the campaign unfolds, it will be fascinating to see how these strategies play out and whether GetUp's efforts will make a difference in the Farrer by-election.
